Bitcoin Price Models

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Bitcoin Price Models

The models shown here explore alternatives to market price. Where you see dotted lines, this denotes the model is purely technical, meaning it only uses market price as its inputs. Solid lines carry metrics that come from the blockchain, that`s to say they carry fundamentals of investor, network and user behaviour.

The market price is determined by traders on the exchanges. This price is subject to manipulation and also emotional cycles of mania and fear.

REALISED CAP by Coinmetrics.
The value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved, in other words an approximation of what the entire market paid for their coins.

NVT CAPS (experimental) by Willy Woo
Values the network using its monetary velocity. In essence mapping velocity back to Market Cap via NVT Ratio. NVT Caps has a tendency to compress at accumulation bottoms. This metric is experimental and subject to calibration error, if velocity deviates from historical norms this will throw out the pricing model. This metric uses volume estimates from Coinmetrics Pro under license.

CVDD (experimental) by Willy Woo.
CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) has historically picked the bottom of the market. When coins pass from old investor to new investor, the transaction carries a USD value and also destroys an amount of HODL time by the previous holder. CVDD is the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as a ratio to the age of the market and divided by 6 million as a calibration factor.

DELTA CAP (experimental) by David Puell.
The Realised Cap minus Average Cap. Market Cap has historically touched Delta Cap at market bottoms.

BALANCED PRICE (experimental) by David Puell.
An experimental attempt at capturing Bitcoin`s `fair` valuation by measuring the difference between what was paid (realized price) and what was spent (transferred price). This is the on-chain kindred spirit to Delta Cap.

TOP CAP (experimental) by Willy Woo.
The average cap multiplied by 35. Historically has matched market tops.

This is the "forever" moving average of Market Cap. The cumulative sum of daily Market Cap values divided by the age of the market in days.

Tracks the total capital inflows into Bitcoin. Inflow Cap is the cumulative value of all coins at the price they were mined.

The cumulative value of all the fees paid on the network.