Bitcoin Price Models

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Bitcoin Price Models

Thes prices are based on mapping the following valuations to the price domain:

The value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved, in other words an approximation of the value paid for all coins in circulation. By Coinmetrics.

Values the network using the networks monetary velocity. In essence mapping NVT Ratio back to target Market Cap. NVT Caps make up a fishnet that tends to converge at accumulation bottoms. (By Willy Woo)

This is the "forever" moving average of Market Cap. The cumulative sum of daily Market Cap values divided by the age of the market in days.

The Realised Cap minus Average Cap. Useful for catching the market bottom, and also as a timing indicator for market tops and the start of the bull phase by tracking its oscillation between Realised Cap and Average Cap. (Experimentally proposed by David Puell)

The average cap multiplied by 35. Historically has matched market tops. (Experimentally proposed by Willy Woo in collaboration with David Puell)

The cumulative value of all coins at the price they were mined.

The cumulative value of all the fees paid on the network.

Investment Charts

Bitcoin Valuations
A collection of useful valuation metrics on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Models
Various price models for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin NVT Ratio
Bitcoin's PE ratio. Detects when Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

Bitcoin NVT Signal
NVT Ratio optimised to be more responsive, useful as a long-range trading indicator.

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio
A Bitcoin under/overvaluation indicator based on Realised Cap.

Bitcoin Network Momentum
A leading indicator on Bitcoin price based on volume throughput through the blockchain (experimental).

Bitcoin HODL Waves
A cross sectional view of Bitcoin HODLers over time, shows demand and supply from new and old HODLers.

Bitcoin Mayer Multiple
Trace Mayer's ratio to measure Bitcoin price in relation to its historical movement.

Economic Properties

Bitcoin Risk-Adjusted Returns
Compares Bitcoin ROI, adjusted for its risk, to other assets.

Bitcoin Volatility
Bitcoin volatility trend, compares to FOREX, also traded volume.

Bitcoin Volatility vs Other Asset Classes
Compares Bitcoin volatility to other asset classes.

Bitcoin Money Supply vs USD
Is Bitcoin trending towards a world reserve currency?

Bitcoin Monetary Velocity
Is Bitcoin trending towards payments or savings/investments?

Bitcoin Volume vs Network Value
Volume transmitted by Bitcoin's blockchain tracks very closely to its Network Value.

Network Properties

Bitcoin Network Properties
Tracks Bitcoin's utility value, security, and valuation over time.

Bitcoin Segwit Adoption
Track the adoption of Segwit.

Bitcoin Network Throughput
Bitcoin's throughput in transactions, payments, and USD value per second.

Bitcoin Congestion
User-centric metrics tracking network congestion, e.g. payment fees, confirm times.

Bitcoin Hash Price
Price per hash tracks the Bitcoin's mining hardware capabilities over time.

Bitcoin Outputs per Tx
Tracks how many outputs are packed into each Bitcoin Transaction.

Woobull Charts

: Author : @woonomic

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