Bitcoin Price Models

source: / @woonomic
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On-chain data providers: Glassnode | Blockchair | Coin Metrics

Bitcoin Price Models

The models shown here explore alternatives to market price. Where you see dotted lines, this denotes the model is purely technical, meaning it only uses market price as its inputs. Solid lines carry metrics that come from the blockchain, that`s to say they carry fundamentals of investor, network and user behaviour.

The market price is determined by traders on the exchanges. This price is subject to manipulation and also emotional cycles of mania and fear.

REALISED PRICE by Coinmetrics.
Realised Cap is value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved, in other words an approximation of what the entire market paid for their coins. In this chart Realised Cap is mapped to the price domain by dividing by the total coin supply.

VWAP PRICE by @icoexplorer.
The volume weight average price, in other words an approximation of what the entire market paid for their coins using market price and on-chain volume.

NVT PRICE by Willy Woo
NVT values the network using its on-chain investor volume. You can think of NVT as a PE Ratio. NVT Price is calculated by multiplying on-chain volume by the 2 year median value of NVT Ratio, that network valuation is then adjusted to price by dividing by the coin supply. This metric uses volume estimates from Coinmetrics Pro under license.

CVDD Floor (experimental) by Willy Woo.
CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) has historically picked the bottom of the market. It works off the theory that when significantly old coins (say bought at $10) pass to new investors (say at $10,000), the market perceives a higher floor.

DELTA CAP (experimental) by David Puell.
The Realised Cap minus Average Cap. Market Cap has historically touched Delta Cap at market bottoms.

BALANCED PRICE (experimental) by David Puell.
An experimental attempt at capturing Bitcoin`s `fair` valuation by measuring the difference between what was paid (realized price) and what was spent (transferred price). This is the on-chain kindred spirit to Delta Cap.

TOP CAP (experimental) by Willy Woo.
The average cap multiplied by 35. Historically has matched market tops.

This is the "forever" moving average of Market Cap. The cumulative sum of daily Market Cap values divided by the age of the market in days.

Tracks the total capital inflows into Bitcoin. Inflow Cap is the cumulative value of all coins at the price they were mined.